What does the Press know about Real Estate Cycles?
With all the press written about real estate I remain astounded to hear very little specific discussion about real estate economics & market cycles – the simple fact is that in a given market and for a given asset class valuations go up and valuations go down over time. This is the way it has always been, and will always continue to be.
I agree with those who suggest that it’s for the most part foolish to try and predict precisely when changes in the cycle will occur, but you can absolutely track the data and the leading indicators market by market so one can note the changes and trends as they’re happening.
A big part of my future posts for the YAERD.org blog will be to track real estate market data, analyze it thoughtfully, and hopefully help investors make better decisions. I am also from time to time going to call out some of the so called real estate economic gurus out there as well as help you avoid the economic hit men (more on that topic later) that routinely take advantage of the public. What makes me qualified to do so you may ask? Well I am not sure I am any more or less qualified than some of the media pundits trying to interpret data, some times correctly but more often that not I see these media experts giving very misguided analysis.
In terms of my qualification, I do have an undergraduate degree in Economics and have done some post graduate work in the field. In and of itself, that doesn’t amount to a hill of beans but combined with my experience working with developers and investors in markets throughout the U.S and internationally I do at least have a unique perspective and hope to periodically offer my two cents on these topics.
Robert Stec
YAERD.org Advisory Board Member
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Nice writing. You are on my RSS reader now so I can read more from you down the road.
Allen Taylor